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全球抗疫英雄谱——奋战在国际抗击新冠肺炎(COVID-19)一线的医护人员

时间:2020-07-31 16:58:02 来源:中国留学人才发展基金会 作者:宣传联络部

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以色列特拉维夫苏拉斯基医疗中心首席执行官罗尼·加姆祖(Ronni Gamzu):领导以色列打赢疫情防控阻击战

 

罗尼·加姆祖(Ronni Gamzu)以色列特拉维夫苏拉斯基医疗中心首席执行官,曾先后担任特拉维夫苏拉斯基医疗中心和以色列卫生部的研究人员和实验室技术人员4月中旬,加姆祖教授被任命为以色列疫情防控工作小组负责人,他采用一种新模型来预测死亡率,并在7月推出了“以色列保护者”计划,旨在通过改革抗击病毒,遏制病毒传播

加姆祖教授在与国防部长本尼·甘茨(Benny Gantz)一同参加会议时达成共识,将从情报局、陆军队伍和空军队伍招募大约1000名在服务期间专门从事调查和分析的退役士兵,负责传染病调查工作

加姆祖教授作为疫情防控工作负责人不仅要负责开展流行病学调查、物流系统、组织信息和数据分析,还要管理包含调查和测试在内的所有操作方面。与此同时,加姆祖教授也会提前制定计划,制定危机管理目标,通过制定模型预测新冠疫情发展趋势。加姆祖教授想通过这些措施,避免国家再次进入封闭状态。他认为,封闭措施是国家不得已采取的临时性措施。

在疫情监测工作中,加姆祖教授采用了伊奇洛夫医院副研发总监伊莱·斯普雷彻Eli Sprecher教授研发的模型,并且要求所有从事抗疫工作的团队都使用这一模型。他指出,不同的模型基于不同的假设和观点,重要的是研究人员之间能够得出一致的结论。为此,他敦促研究人员制定一种“集成模型,该模型将为决策者提供统一的,可靠的决策基础。他解释说“我们采用了一个非常简单的模型,这也是预测结果相对准确的原因,模型的弱点在于过度依赖过去的数据,因此只能够提供短期的预测结果,但是这种模型符合医院的需求

该模型采用与以色列特征相似的国家的感染情况相关数据作出假设,着眼于新增患者数量重症患者数量之间的关系,通过分析过去几天的数据预测未来几天的情况。该模型可以提供未来两至三周的情况预测,为决策者提供悲观和乐观两种情况预测。根据斯普雷彻的说法,感染率最具决定性因素是感染系数这是模型的核心。

根据斯普雷彻和他的团队设计的模型,8月2日新增感染人数高达358371。乐观预测结果显示,截至8月8日,感染人数上升387,而悲观的预测显示感染人数将上升至450

7月,加姆祖教授介绍了“以色列保护者”计划。该计划提出,将由技术、有工具、有能力”的以色列国防军队负责密切接触者追踪,同时建立一个专家小组,协助决策者制定疫情防控政策。该计划将根据不同城市的疫情情况,对城市进行分类,避免封闭措施带来的“不合逻辑的限制”加姆祖教授还计划建立新的病毒实验室,同时将检测数量提高至每日60000个 

 

 

How Israel's Coronavirus Czar Plans to Tackle the Pandemic

 

Prof. Ronni Gamzu, who was appointed coronavirus czar last week, is expected to expand the system of epidemiological investigations and adopt a new model for predicting the death rate of the disease in a bid to reform the effort against the coronavirus and halt its spread. 

Gamzu met over the weekend with Defense Minister Benny Gantz to discuss increasing cooperation between health and defense officials in order to boost the speed of epidemiological investigations aimed at cutting the chain of infection. 

The two spoke of increasing the staff of investigators by around 1,000 by enlisting discharged soldiers who specialized in investigations and analysis during their service, such as those from the Intelligence Corps, Military Police and Air Force. There have been recent reports of a plan to make the entire investigation process subordinate to the Defense Ministry, but associates of Health Minister Yuli Edelstein and Health Ministry officials said the system would remain under their authority. 

Gamzu is expected to head the control center responsible for conducting epidemiological investigations, the logistics system, the organization of information and data analysis. As part of this, Gamzu is expected to manage all operational aspects of the fight against the virus, including investigations and testing. 

At the same time, Gamzu is supposed to plan ahead by setting goals for managing the crisis, and formulating models for predicting the path of the pandemic. These measures are aimed at realizing Gamzu’s policy of avoiding another lockdown. “[A lockdown] is at the bottom of the toolbox,” he told Haaretz in a recent podcast. “It’s not smart; it’s a management failure.” 

The Health Ministry has so far relied on data from its epidemiology division and a team of researchers from the Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research to get a snapshot of the outbreak and its continued spread. Gamzu is seeking to expand the number of prediction models and reference scenarios; he has adopted a model developed by Ichilov Hospital’s deputy director general for research and development, Prof. Eli Sprecher, and instructed all teams dealing with the pandemic to work with this model. 

“The different models rely on a number of different assumptions and perspectives, and the important thing is a dialogue between researchers and coming to compatible conclusions,” Gamzu said over the weekend. He urged those researchers working with Sprecher and those at the Gertner Institute to formulate an “integrated model that will form a single, uniform and reliable basis for decision-makers.” 

Avoiding a lockdown 

Gamzu told Haaretz explained that the model developed by Sprecher can predict the morbidity situation two to three weeks in advance. “We built a very simple model, which is also the reason it predicts accurately, but its weakness is that it relies on the recent past and thus can only predict the near future,” he said. “We chose this model because it is most suited to the needs of a hospital. It allows the hospitals to prepare for everything connected to the closing and opening of wards and what sort of people to train.” 

He added, “When speaking about decisions of balancing between economics and morbidity and quarantining in the community, this model doesn’t deal with that.” 

The model focuses on the connection between the number of new infections and the number of patients in serious condition and predicts the morbidity situation eight days forward by analyzing the data from the previous eight days. Using algorithms that examine the morbidity in countries similar to Israel, the model provides a forecast for two to three weeks. According to Sprecher, the most decisive factor with regard to the rate of infection is the infection coefficient (the number people on average that each infected person will infect). “This is the dynamic that decides in the end,” and it is at the heart of the model. 

The model presents several forecasts based on the infection level and how it changes. According to the pessimistic model, steps the government takes won’t impact the infection rate. The optimistic model, by contrast, assumes the government and the public will act appropriately to lower the infection rate. 

The various assumptions the model is based upon are taken by researchers from countries with similar characteristics to Israel’s, but have “preceded” it in terms of coping with the pandemic. Thus, Sprecher explained, one can ascertain when the infection rate starts to drop in a country like Croatia and use that to create an optimistic forecast for Israel and predict the minimum number of seriously ill patients during the coming days. 

According to the model devised by Sprecher and his team, the number of people in serious condition on August 2 will be between 358 and 371. On August 8, the number will rise to 387 under the optimistic forecast, and 450 in the pessimistic one. On August 15, there will be 600 patients in serious condition under the pessimistic model, compared to 336 in the optimistic scenario, in which the infection rate is successfully lowered. 

Like Gamzu, Sprecher objects to a lockdown. “Unfortunately, we have proof in the field of what a lockdown does,” he said. “It definitely can bring down the infection rate significantly, but there are two things that weren’t stressed enough – understanding the socioeconomic damage, and using the time provided by the lockdown to prepare and establish a system of epidemiological investigations. If these are not done, what you achieve during the lockdown goes down the drain.”

 

来源:Haaretz, I24 NEWS, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center

 

 

温馨说明:本栏目中文内容由我会根据来源处内容整理并翻译。

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